October 7 Update – Trends

State of the State

Please see the excerpts below and then read the article at the Concord Monitor. While things are relatively good in New Hampshire, they are trending the wrong way. I agree with Mr. Brooks statement:

“But as long as the state’s daily case counts keeps increasing, even if it’s only increasing by a small amount, we can’t relax. After all, exponential growth always starts slowly and plenty of other places have shown how quickly you can go from having the virus under control to needing a full lockdown.”

There is an old math exercise to understand exponential growth. You ask someone if they prefer to be paid $1000 per week for a month, or get paid just 2 cents on day one, and then get your pay doubled every day for 30 days. Grab a calculator and try it. .02 x 2. Then just hit the enter button 29 more times. ~ Steve

COVID tracker: New cases keep edging up but things are still pretty good


Goal 1: No sustained increase in number of new hospitalizations related to COVID-19. Have we met this goal? Yes.

The two-week average of new hospitalizations has hovered between one-half and one per day all summer.  

It edged up slightly to 1.1 per day by Oct. 2. That’s the highest since early August, which is a little alarming, but on the other hand it’s still so very low that small fluctuations don’t necessarily indicate a trend.

It bears watching closely, however.

COVID-related deaths also remain very low, less than one every three days.

Goal 2: A two-week drop in new cases. Have we met this goal? No.

As mentioned above, the two-week average in daily new cases has risen slowly but pretty steadily since late August.

Goal 3: Fewer than four new cases per 100,000 people each day, or 54 new cases a day. Have we met this goal? Yes.

The average number of new cases has been below 54, the per-capita level commonly used as a sign of widespread infection, since mid-June.

Goal 4: Conducting at least 150 PCR tests per 100,000 people each day, or 2,000 tests per day. Have we met this goal? Yes, easily.

The average number of test results reported each day was about 3,500 last week, thanks to increased testing at schools and colleges. UNH, in particular, is cranking out tests through its own lab.

Goal 5: A positive rate of PCR tests below 5%, indicating that we’re doing enough testing to get a good handle on how widespread the virus is. Have we met this goal? Yes, easily.

As measured by the Department of Health and Human Services, the positive rate has been below 3% since the first week of June and recently fell under 1%.

Critics emerge about livestreaming New Hampshire trials


New Hampshire 2019 Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) Summary Report

(data updated as of October 6, 2020 – 9:00 AM)

Number of Persons with COVID-19 18,731
Recovered7,785 (89%)
Deaths Attributed to COVID-19446 (5%)
Total Current COVID-19 Cases500
Persons Who Have Been Hospitalized for COVID-19743 (9%)
Current Hospitalizations20
Total Persons Tested at Selected Laboratories, Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR)2283,471
Total Persons Tested at Selected Laboratories, Antibody Laboratory Tests231,302
Persons with Specimens Submitted to NH PHL47,778
Persons with Test Pending at NH PHL3429
Persons Being Monitored in NH (approximate point in time)2,825

1 Includes specimens positive at any laboratory and those confirmed by CDC confirmatory testing.
2 Includes specimens tested at the NH Public Health Laboratories (PHL), LabCorp, Quest, Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center, Mako, certain hospital laboratories, the University of New Hampshire and their contracted laboratory, and those sent to CDC prior to NH PHL testing capacity.
3 Includes specimens received and awaiting testing at NH PHL. Does not include tests pending at commercial laboratories.

NH DHHS COVID-19 Update – October 6, 2020

Concord, NH – The New Hampshire Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has issued the following update on the new coronavirus, COVID-19.
On Tuesday, October 6, 2020, DHHS announced 53 new positive test results for COVID-19, for a daily PCR test positivity rate of 0.6%. Today’s results include 34 people who tested positive by PCR test and 19 who tested positive by antigen test. There are now 500 current COVID-19 cases diagnosed in New Hampshire.
Several cases are still under investigation. Additional information from ongoing investigations will be incorporated into future COVID-19 updates. Of those with complete information, there are fifteen individuals under the age of 18 and the rest are adults with 47% being female and 53% being male. The new cases reside in Rockingham (10), Hillsborough County other than Manchester and Nashua (8), Strafford (6), Merrimack (3), Belknap (2), Cheshire (1), Grafton (1), and Sullivan (1) counties, and in the cities of Nashua (9) and Manchester (7). The county of residence is being determined for five new cases.
No new hospitalized cases were identified. There are currently 20 individuals hospitalized with COVID19. Twelve of the new cases had no identified risk factors. Community-based transmission continues to occur in the State and has been identified in all counties. Of those with complete risk information, most of the cases have either had close contact with a person with a confirmed COVID-19 diagnosis or recently traveled.
DHHS has also announced two additional deaths related to COVID-19. We offer our sympathies to the family and friends.
 1 female resident of Hillsborough County, 60 years of age and older
 1 male resident of Hillsborough County, 60 years of age and older
In New Hampshire since the start of the pandemic, there have been a total of 8,731 cases of COVID-19 diagnosed with 743 (9%) of those having been hospitalized.

About Rep. Steven Smith

Steven Smith is a member of the New Hampshire House of Representatives, serving his 7th term. Rep. Smith currently represents Charlestown, Newport, and Unity. Rep. Smith is the Deputy Speaker of the NH House.
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